The Past, Present, and Future of Peaking Thermal Power Plants in the United States: Article No. 114886

Max Vanatta; Brian Sergi; Wesley Cole; Paul Denholm; Trieu Mai

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2026.114886

The Past, Present, and Future of Peaking Thermal Power Plants in the United States: Article No. 114886

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Abstract

Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

Original language	American English
Number of pages	9
Journal	iScience
Volume	29
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2026.114886
State	Published - 2026

NLR Publication Number

NLR/JA-6A40-90977

Keywords

energy management
energy resources
energy systems

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10.1016/j.isci.2026.114886

Cite this

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title = "The Past, Present, and Future of Peaking Thermal Power Plants in the United States: Article No. 114886",

abstract = "Today's power systems rely on {"}peaker plants{"} to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12\%-17\% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.",

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T1 - The Past, Present, and Future of Peaking Thermal Power Plants in the United States

T2 - Article No. 114886

AU - Vanatta, Max

AU - Sergi, Brian

AU - Cole, Wesley

AU - Denholm, Paul

AU - Mai, Trieu

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

N2 - Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

AB - Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

KW - energy management

KW - energy resources

KW - energy systems

U2 - 10.1016/j.isci.2026.114886

DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2026.114886

M3 - Article

SN - 2589-0042

VL - 29

JO - iScience

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IS - 3

ER -

The Past, Present, and Future of Peaking Thermal Power Plants in the United States: Article No. 114886

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