Geothermal Heat Pumps and Thermal Energy Networks: Technical Feasibility and Market Adoption: Article No. 117432

Geothermal technologies, including geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and thermal energy networks (TENs), are gaining traction as methods to efficiently meet heating and cooling loads. Changes to costs and incentives may impact adoption and can help support decision-making in effectively deploying GHPs and TENs. In this work, the updated distributed geothermal market demand (dGeo) model is used to analyze scenarios across the US demonstrating a range of economic potential and adoption for GHPs and TENs. We find that the more established GHP technology has widespread economic potential and adoption, while the newer TEN technology has economic potential and adoption concentrated in areas with dense populations. GHP adoption was projected to 251 GW-th by 2050 with high incentives and tax credits, while TEN adoption was projected at 31 GW-th by 2050. Uncertainties in cost structure translate to large variations in adoption, pointing to the importance of demonstration projects and cost-tracking efforts.