Assessing a Value-of-Information Framework for Informing Geothermal Data Collection Efforts in Hawai'i: Preprint

Value of Information (VOI) is a metric that can help determine which types of information can improve the outcomes of decisions-a key issue in geothermal exploration because of the innate uncertainties in subsurface data collection and interpretation. The National Laboratory of the Rockies' open-source VOI tool assumes a binary decision-either drill or walk away-and a binary geothermal outcome that is either positive (geothermal exists) or negative (geothermal does not exist) based on the average published costs of drilling a geothermal well. In this work, positive and negative labels are produced and assigned to existing exploration data using the probabilities output from the Hawai'i play fairway analysis project funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Geothermal. The VOI framework is applied at the beginning of a new data collection project funded by Office of Geothermal to determine the types and locations of data collection that would provide the most value. We examine a framework for applying quantitative decision analysis methods to aid the development of a data acquisition plan, ideally resulting in a reproducible framework that can be applied in Hawai'i or elsewhere to inform future data collection efforts.